2022년에는 전세계적으로 투자자들이 플러스 수익률을 낼 수 있는 시장을 찾는 것 자체가 어려웠습니다. 중국시장 역시 H주, A주, ADR주 모두 올해 첫 11개월 간 달러 수익률이 20~29%씩 하락하는 등 매도세에서 벗어날 수 없었는데요. 외국인 투자자들의 순매도세가 이어지는 동안 시장 회전율은 감소하였습니다. 중국 내부적으로 잦은 코로나 봉쇄조치, 부동산 시장 침체, 계속되는 빅테크 감시, 미중 관계 악화 등의 요인 모두 중국 증시 약세 기조에 기여했습니다. 대외적으로는 우크라이나-러시아 전쟁, 높은 인플레 압력, 가속화된 금리 인상 주기, 달러 강세 등의 이벤트들로 인해 위험자산에 대한 투자자 신뢰도가 더욱 약화되었습니다.

세계 시장은 인플레이션과 경기 불황 위험이 고조되는 가운데 2022년 현재까지 더 높은 변동성을 마주하고 있다. 미국 금리인상 사이클로 인한 달러 강세가 대부분의 외화표시 자산들의 달러수익률을 더욱 압박하고 있다. 이번 인사이트에서는 동종상품들 중에서는 아시아 최초로 USD 환헤지 기능을 제공하는 Premia China Treasury and Policy Bank Bond Long Duration ETF USD 환헤지형(9177.HK)을 추가한 이유에 대해 기술할 예정이다. 미국의 지속적 금리 인상 속 시가평가(MTM) 리스크를 염두에 둔 투자자와 장기 듀레이션 상품에 대한 자산배분이 필요한 자산가들을 위해, Premia China Treasury and Policy Bank Bond Long Duration ETF는 강력한 A1 국채 신용등급을 보유한 중국 장기국채 및 정책은행 채권에 투자접근성을 제공하는 특별한 투자도구로, 3% 이상의 경쟁력 있는 수익률과 안정적인 수익률 변동성, 그리고 이제는 USD 환헤지형 상품을 통해 위안화의 환율 위험을 최소화하면서도 중국 국채의 안정적인 수익률까지 잡을 수 있는 추가 옵션까지 제공한다.

Most asset classes did not perform well so far this year amid the rising interest rate environment and the Ukraine-Russia conflict, e.g., -12.8% in developed market equities, -10.1% in emerging market equities, -4.0% in global bonds, -29.1% in cryptocurrencies. The only exception was commodity, which went up over 32% year-to-date. Crude oil prices keep getting higher with no sign of a pullback in near-term, leading to a mounting inflation pressure to the global economic recovery. Investors are now thinking hard to reallocate their assets and shift away from the risky exposure. Riding the commodity rally by increasing the position in oil or gold may be one of the options, but the usual high volatility and negative carry are always the obstacles for placing any significant bets.

In the US the “triple peaks” in economic growth, earnings growth and policy stimulus will likely result in much lower returns for US equities in 2022. The persistently high inflation – which will likely run hotter in the US than Europe and Japan – is already causing greater volatility as US equities are put on tenterhooks over the timing and magnitude of rate hikes. Meanwhile US Dollar could weaken on inflation rather than strengthen on higher Treasury yields. On the other hand, Emerging Markets, usually do better during periods of Dollar weakness but this time we could see a new twist - this favours China, supported by easier financial conditions. On top of all these, how is the Omicron Virus going to impact the global markets and what are the implications for global asset allocations in 2022? Why ASEAN would be a good diversification within Emerging Markets? Further to Part 1 of our 2022 outlook piece earlier, in this Part 2 sequel our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim laid out the scenarios and discussed how we can reposition for the global shifts accordingly to address the transition to tightening and pivot from US equities.

Amidst the high risk of holding Developed Market government bonds and credits in an environment of rising inflation and historically low spreads, a frequent lament among institutions and large family offices is “but our mandate requires us to hold bonds.”

The inflation threat is now clear and present. And while equities may tolerate rising US inflation for a while longer, the Developed Market bond markets are highly vulnerable.

It is inevitable that the traditional 60/40 asset allocation split between bond and equity no longer work well as the fixed income portion is not generating sufficient stable income.

As our Senior Advisor Sayboon Lim stated in the article “Gimme shelter” that it is essential for investors to have China sovereign bonds in their asset allocation, it would be timely for us to introduce the newly launched Premia China Treasury and Policy Bank Bond Long Duration ETF for your consideration.

Index provider FTSE Russell will add Chinese Government Bonds (CGBs) to the FTSE World Government Bond Index (WGBI) over three years from the end of October – a move that is expected to draw billions of Dollars of new portfolio inflows. Already, there has been a sharp increase in foreign inflows into RMB bonds over the past 12 months, accelerating soon after the start of the pandemic. In this 2-part series, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim highlights the drivers for new demand for CGBs and the reasons to own them.